Self-driving cars: the world of transportation as we know it is becoming rapidly obsolete. What had been the stuff of science fiction is now, at last, within reach of reality. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) will fundamentally transform our conception of travel, mobility, and even our cities. Everyone from Tesla, to Waymo, to traditional automakers are vying to deliver fully autonomously operating vehicles on the streets (some doing better than others).
But now that we are on the cusp of this new era, the question becomes: What’s next for self-driving cars? We have made profound strides in autonomous technology, but the road is far from done. In this article, we’ll look at the future of self-driving cars, the challenges they still face, and the potential changes they could bring to our everyday lives, transportation systems, and economy.
A Primordial Age of Self-Driving Things
There have been numerous advancements in self-driving vehicles since early concepts were first introduced. We’ve transitioned from basic driver-assistance systems like adaptive cruise control and lane-keeping assist to highly advanced autonomous features, such as Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) Beta. But these vehicles are still developing full autonomy.
The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) defines five levels of automation for self-driving cars:
Level 0: No Automation
It is even further from the truth that the driver has full control of the vehicle.
Level 1: Driver Assistance
There are features such as cruise control or lane-keeping assist, but the driver has to keep control of the vehicle.
Level 2: Partial Automation
The car is capable of performing certain functions — steering and acceleration, for example — but the operator must stay involved in the direction of the vehicle and be able to take control if necessary.
This level is also known as conditional automation. The car can handle all aspects of driving under certain conditions, but a human driver must be there and ready to take over.
Level 4: High Automation
The car has the capability to drive itself in certain environments (e.g., geo-fenced areas such as urban centers), excluding any driver input.
Level 5: Full Automation
This means the vehicle can make its own decisions and operate in any condition/environment without involving human intervention.
The last milestone for self-driving cars is the so-called Level 5 autonomy, where the vehicle is able to drive itself on its own in all scenarios without any sort of human oversight. That is the end game for self-driving cars, but there are a number of big hurdles before we get there.
Major Hurdles Standing in the Way of Complete Autonomy
Self-driving has come a long way, but getting to Level 5 will require overcoming some significant challenges:
1.1 Safety and Reliability
Arguably the most important aspect of your self-driving car is to make sure it is safe and reliable. If one self-driving car makes a miscalculation, it could lead to a deadly accident. To be widely adopted, however, self-driving cars need to be capable of handling all driving conditions—rain, snow, fog, extreme traffic situations—flawlessly.
Sensor Technology
Self-driving vehicles use a combination of sensors, such as cameras, LiDAR (light detection and ranging), radar, and ultrasonic sensors, to sense their environment. These sensors must be able to operate flawlessly in every condition, including low-light conditions or inclement weather.
Software and Algorithms
Just like a human driver, the vehicle’s artificial intelligence (AI) must be able to make split-second decisions, but with more accuracy and consistency. When an animal unexpectedly appears to cross the road, the car has to choose whether to brake, swerve, or do something else.
Redundancy and Fault Tolerance
For reliability, autonomous vehicles will require redundancy, where backup sensors and communication links will be in place so that if a system fails, the car can still take control of the situation.
1.2 Regulatory Hurdles
One more big challenge for autonomous vehicles is the legal framework. And although a number of countries have begun the process of passing legislation to regulate such vehicles, no universal standard currently exists governing their operation. There are huge differences between the rules that govern self-driving cars across countries (and even states within a country), which has made the widespread deployment of this technology hard for companies.
Safety Standards
In addition to driving on the road, self-driving cars must meet the same standards as traditional cars in terms of safety. These rules will guarantee that the same safety standards that apply to human drivers also apply to driverless vehicles.
Liability
When an autonomous vehicle gets into an accident, assigning responsibility can be complicated. Was it the fault of the manufacturer, or is it the fault of the vehicle owner? These legal issues will need to be resolved before self-driving cars can proliferate.
Insurance
The self-driving car industry will also have to cater to the insurance industry. How will insurance policies be structured if autonomous vehicles are involved in accidents less frequently? How will the premiums be adjusted to compensate for the amount of risk they get involved in?
1.3 Public Perception and Trust
Public perception is also a major consideration in the prospects for self-driving vehicles. Many are excited about the benefits of being able to travel without a human driver behind the wheel, while others remain deeply skeptical that such vehicles will ever be safe. High-profile crashes in self-driving cars have raised public concern about the technology’s readiness for widespread adoption.
Testing and Transparency
The manufacturers of autonomous vehicles will have to conduct rigorous co-checks for their cars and transparent outcome reports to gain trust. That includes proving their automobiles are at least as safe as (or safer than) human drivers in a variety of driving conditions.
In separate sections of the report, the implications for education and advocacy are outlined: Governments, manufacturers, and advocacy groups must collaborate to educate the public on the benefits and risks of self-driving cars. “Heavily public campaigns can also unblock information like this and can lead to a less negative attitude towards technology.”
Self-Driving Cars: What’s Next?
Although full autonomy remains to be achieved, there are many developments that are expected to shape the future of self-driving cars.
3.1 Self-Driving Ride-Hailing Services
Self-driving cars have one of the most obvious use cases: ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft. Indeed, companies are already trialing their autonomous vehicles for ridesharing, with the aim of minimizing human drivers. In some cities, we’ve already seen pilots where passengers can hail self-driving taxis that have a driver present in case anything goes awry.
Efficiency and Cost Cutting
Self-driving ride-sharing services will massively drop the price of transportation, as there are no human drivers to be paid as part of the fare, a considerable sum. Self-driving cars can work all day, every day, as opposed to just the limited time a human can spend driving.
Less Congestion & Less Pollution
There would be a reduction in traffic jams as the technology advances (it is only going to be adopted if people choose between ride sharing and owning a car). It would mean less time of cars thrashing around the road and fewer emissions, creating cleaner and more sustainable urban areas.
3.2 ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems)
Although many automakers are already deploying advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in their cars, true Level 5 autonomy is still the endgame. Such systems that feature lane-keeping assist, automatic emergency braking, and adaptive cruise control, however, bring us a step closer to fully autonomous driving.
The higher Level 3 and Level 4 systems are already being introduced by carmakers that enable the vehicle to take control and drive itself under certain circumstances (e.g., highway driving). As AI systems get smarter, there will be more automation in our lives.
3.3 Traffic and Transportation as a Service
Outside of passenger cars, the tech is being adapted for freight and deliveries as well. Autonomous trucks have been tested on highways and could be transformational in the logistics sector.
Long-Haul Freight
Because self-driving trucks do not require to stop and take a break, they can run for longer hours of the day and enhance freight movement efficiency. These trucks are also capable of incorporating advanced sensors that can help keep them from hitting anything and possibly drive more safely than human drivers.
Last-Mile Delivery
Similar to long-distance transportation, autonomous delivery vehicles are being tested for short-distance deliveries, like food delivery or package delivery. And businesses like Amazon are investigating the use of drones and self-driving vehicles for last-mile delivery, which could greatly cut delivery times and costs.
Societal Implications of Autonomous Vehicles
The advent of autonomous driving will create ripple effects throughout our society. These are just a few potential effects:
Job Displacement
Although self-driving vehicles will generate jobs in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, as well as transportation management, they will also replace jobs in industries such as trucking, taxi services, and delivery. One step that will need to be taken is retraining workers affected by automation.
Urban Planning & Infrastructure
Autonomous vehicles may also change how we plan our cities. Less car ownership could push cities to better prioritize public transit, bike lanes, and pedestrianized areas. Parking lots and garages could be converted to other purposes, like parks or affordable housing.
Legal and Ethical Considerations
With the advent of self-driving cars, there will be a lot of legal and ethical issues that will need to be worked through, including questions of liability for accidents, data privacy, and the interaction between autonomous vehicles and other road users.
Conclusion: The Future of Self-Driving Cars
Self-driving cars are the future, but there is still a long way to go until we can experience a truly self-driving world. There are complicated concerns to overcome around safety, regulation, public perception, and technology before we achieve Level 5 autonomy. Nonetheless, as we unlock more innovations, one can only expect a gradual implementation of self-driving cars in our everyday lives. Whether that takes the form of an autonomous ride-hailing service, enhanced driver assistance systems, or self-driving trucks transporting packages around the country, the road to true autonomy has already begun, and the future of transportation is closer than we may realize.
FAQs
What is the Timeline for Self-Driving Cars to Hit the Road?
Although many self-driving capabilities are already on the market in consumer vehicles (partially autonomous, Level 2, examples include Tesla’s Autopilot and Cadillac’s SuperCruise), fully self-driving cars (Level 5) will not be available to the masses for years. Some experts believe we can expect fully autonomous vehicles by the 2030s.
Are Self-Driving Cars Safe?
Driverless cars are becoming increasingly safer to operate. Despite the progress, there have been some incidents with autonomous vehicles that necessitate additional advancements in sensor technology, AI decision-making capabilities, and fail-safe systems. Safety is among the industry’s biggest priorities.
Will Self-Driving Cars Put People Out of Work?
Self-Driving Cars Will Probably Displace Trucking Jobs, Taxi Jobs, Delivery Jobs, etc. But they will also open the way for new jobs in growth areas like AI, robotics, and the management of autonomous vehicles, for example.
Will Self-Driving Vehicles Make Traffic Safer?
In theory, autonomous cars are less error-prone drivers, outdoing human detective work behind the wheel, eliminating many of the factors responsible for most car crashes. Self-driving cars use sophisticated sensors and decision-making algorithms to create a safer driving environment.
How Will Self-Driving Cars Change the Way Cities Are Built?
Self-driving cars could result in more effective urban planning with less congestion, repurposed parking spaces, and a greater focus on public transportation and pedestrian-friendly infrastructure. As a result, cities may become more livable and sustainable.